Estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 in Vietnam

To estimate the incubation period of Vietnamese confirmed COVID-19 cases. Only confirmed COVID-19 cases who are Vietnamese and locally infected with available data on date of symptom onset and clearly defined window of possible SARS-CoV-2 exposure were included. We used three parametric forms with H...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	PloS one Vol. 15; no. 12; p. e0243889
Main Authors:	Bui, Long V, Nguyen, Ha T, Levine, Hagai, Nguyen, Ha N, Nguyen, Thu-Anh, Nguyen, Thuy P, Nguyen, Truong T, Do, Toan T T, Pham, Ngoc T, Bui, My Hanh
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	United States Public Library of Science 23-12-2020 Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Subjects:	Adult Bayes Theorem Biology and life sciences COVID-19 - epidemiology COVID-19 - transmission COVID-19 - virology Female Humans Infectious Disease Incubation Period Male Measurement Medicine and Health Sciences Middle Aged Monte Carlo Method People and Places Physical sciences Quarantine Research and analysis methods SARS-CoV-2 - pathogenicity Vietnam - epidemiology Vietnam
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Summary:	To estimate the incubation period of Vietnamese confirmed COVID-19 cases. Only confirmed COVID-19 cases who are Vietnamese and locally infected with available data on date of symptom onset and clearly defined window of possible SARS-CoV-2 exposure were included. We used three parametric forms with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method for Bayesian Inference to estimate incubation period for Vietnamese COVID-19 cases. Leave-one-out Information Criterion was used to assess the performance of three models. A total of 19 cases identified from 23 Jan 2020 to 13 April 2020 was included in our analysis. Average incubation periods estimated using different distribution model ranged from 6.0 days to 6.4 days with the Weibull distribution demonstrated the best fit to the data. The estimated mean of incubation period using Weibull distribution model was 6.4 days (95% credible interval (CrI): 4.89-8.5), standard deviation (SD) was 3.05 (95%CrI 3.05-5.30), median was 5.6, ranges from 1.35 to 13.04 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentiles). Extreme estimation of incubation periods is within 14 days from possible infection. This analysis provides evidence for an average incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 6.4 days. Our findings support existing guidelines for 14 days of quarantine of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2. Although for extreme cases, the quarantine period should be extended up to three weeks.
Bibliography:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
ISSN:	1932-6203 1932-6203
DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0243889