Search Results - "Budescu, David V"

Identifying Expertise to Extract the Wisdom of Crowds by Budescu, David V., Chen, Eva

“…Statistical aggregation is often used to combine multiple opinions within a group. Such aggregates outperform individuals, including experts, in various…”
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The Wisdom of Many in Few: Finding Individuals Who Are as Wise as the Crowd by Himmelstein, Mark, Budescu, David V., Ho, Emily H.

“…Is forecasting ability a stable trait? While domain knowledge and reasoning abilities are necessary for making accurate forecasts, research shows that knowing…”
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The interpretation of IPCC probabilistic statements around the world by Budescu, David V., Por, Han-Hui, Broomell, Stephen B., Smithson, Michael

“…The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses verbal descriptions of uncertainty (for example, Unlikely) to convey imprecision in its forecasts and…”
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Improving Communication of Uncertainty in the Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Budesen, David V., Broomell, Stephen, Por, Han-Hui

“…The Intergovernmental Panel on Carnate Change (IPCC) assesses information relevant to the understanding of climate change and explores options for adaptation…”
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Forecasting forecaster accuracy: Contributions of past performance and individual differences by Himmelstein, Mark, Atanasov, Pavel, Budescu, David V

“…Abstract A growing body of research indicates that forecasting skill is a unique and stable trait: forecasters with a track record of high accuracy tend to…”
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Recalibrating probabilistic forecasts to improve their accuracy by Han, Ying, Budescu, David V

“…Abstract The accuracy of human forecasters is often reduced because of incomplete information and cognitive biases that affect the judges. One approach to…”
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Teams Make You Smarter: How Exposure to Teams Improves Individual Decisions in Probability and Reasoning Tasks by Maciejovsky, Boris, Sutter, Matthias, Budescu, David V., Bernau, Patrick

“…Many important decisions are routinely made by transient and temporary teams, which perform their duty and disperse. Team members often continue making similar…”
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The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections by Benjamin, Daniel M, Budescu, David V

“…Scientists agree that the climate is changing due to human activities, but there is less agreement about the specific consequences and their timeline…”
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A survey of human judgement and quantitative forecasting methods by Zellner, Maximilian, Abbas, Ali E, Budescu, David V, Galstyan, Aram

“…This paper's top-level goal is to provide an overview of research conducted in the many academic domains concerned with forecasting. By providing a summary…”
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Analyzing Test-Taking Behavior: Decision Theory Meets Psychometric Theory by Budescu, David V., Bo, Yuanchao

“…We investigate the implications of penalizing incorrect answers to multiple-choice tests, from the perspective of both test-takers and test-makers. To do so,…”
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Aggregating Multiple Probability Intervals to Improve Calibration by Park, Saemi, Budescu, David V.

“…Abstract We apply the principles of the “Wisdom of Crowds (WoC)” to improve the calibration of interval estimates. Previous research has documented the…”
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Collective Induction Without Cooperation? Learning and Knowledge Transfer in Cooperative Groups and Competitive Auctions by Maciejovsky, Boris, Budescu, David V

“…There is strong evidence that groups perform better than individuals do on intellective tasks with demonstrably correct solutions. Typically, these studies…”
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The Effects of Imprecise Probabilities and Outcomes in Evaluating Investment Options by Du, Ning, Budescu, David V

“…Vagueness attitudes have been used to explain anomalies and irregularities in investment behavior. It is generally assumed (Ellsberg 1961) that decision makers…”
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Preference for human or algorithmic forecasting advice does not predict if and how it is used by Himmelstein, Mark, Budescu, David V.

“…Past research has found that people treat advice differently depending on its source. In many cases, people seem to prefer human advice to algorithms, but in…”
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An IRT forecasting model: linking proper scoring rules to item response theory by Emily Bo, Yuanchao, Budescu, David V., Lewis, Charles, Tetlock, Philip E., Mellers, Barbara

“…This article proposes an Item Response Theoretical (IRT) forecasting model that incorporates proper scoring rules and provides evaluations of forecasters'…”
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How to Measure Diversity When You Must by Budescu, David V, Budescu, Mia

“…Racial/ethnic diversity has become an increasingly important variable in the social sciences. Research from multiple disciplines consistently demonstrates the…”
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Dominance Analysis: A New Approach to the Problem of Relative Importance of Predictors in Multiple Regression by Budescu, David V

“…Whenever multiple regression is used to test and compare theoretically motivated models, it is of interest to determine the relative importance of the…”
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Personal experience with climate change predicts intentions to act by Broomell, Stephen B., Budescu, David V., Por, Han-Hui

“…•Willingness to engage in mitigation actions correlates with personal experiences.•Personal experiences predict endorsement of specific mitigation…”
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Effective communication of uncertainty in the IPCC reports by Budescu, David V., Por, Han-Hui, Broomell, Stephen B.

“…The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publishes periodical assessment reports informing policymakers and the public on issues relevant to the…”
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Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment by Ho, Emily, Budescu, David V., Bosetti, Valentina, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Keller, Klaus

“…Climate researchers use carbon dioxide emission scenarios to explore alternative climate futures and potential impacts, as well as implications of mitigation…”
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