Search Results - "Broomell, Stephen B"

The interpretation of IPCC probabilistic statements around the world by Budescu, David V., Por, Han-Hui, Broomell, Stephen B., Smithson, Michael

“…The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses verbal descriptions of uncertainty (for example, Unlikely) to convey imprecision in its forecasts and…”
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Relationship between lay and expert perceptions of COVID-19 vaccine development timelines in Canada and USA by Kane, Patrick Bodilly, Moyer, Hannah, MacPherson, Amanda, Papenburg, Jesse, Ward, Brian J, Broomell, Stephen B, Kimmleman, Jonathan

“…Compare lay expectations of medical development to those of experts in the context of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development. A short online survey of experts and lay…”
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Judgment and Decision Making by Fischhoff, Baruch, Broomell, Stephen B

“…The science of judgment and decision making involves three interrelated forms of research: analysis of the decisions people face, description of their natural…”
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Environmental risk perception from visual cues: the psychophysics of tornado risk perception by Dewitt, Barry, Fischhoff, Baruch, Davis, Alexander, Broomell, Stephen B

“…Lay judgments of environmental risks are central to both immediate decisions (e.g., taking shelter from a storm) and long-term ones (e.g., building in…”
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Compositional Data Analysis Tutorial by Smithson, Michael, Broomell, Stephen B.

“…This article presents techniques for dealing with a form of dependency in data arising when numerical data sum to a constant for individual cases, that is,…”
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Global–Local Incompatibility: The Misperception of Reliability in Judgment Regarding Global Variables by Broomell, Stephen B.

“…A number of important decision domains, including decisions about hiring, global warming, and weather hazards, are characterized by a global–local…”
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Parameter Recovery for Decision Modeling Using Choice Data by Broomell, Stephen B, Bhatia, Sudeep

“…We introduce a general framework to predict how decision sets used in decision-making experiments impact the quality of parameter estimates. We applied our…”
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Public Perception and Communication of Scientific Uncertainty by Broomell, Stephen B., Kane, Patrick Bodilly

“…Understanding how the public perceives uncertainty in scientific research is fundamental for effective communication about research and its inevitable…”
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Capturing richer information: On establishing the validity of an interval-valued survey response mode by Ellerby, Zack, Wagner, Christian, Broomell, Stephen B.

“…Obtaining quantitative survey responses that are both accurate and informative is crucial to a wide range of fields. Traditional and ubiquitous response…”
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Personal experience with climate change predicts intentions to act by Broomell, Stephen B., Budescu, David V., Por, Han-Hui

“…•Willingness to engage in mitigation actions correlates with personal experiences.•Personal experiences predict endorsement of specific mitigation…”
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Effective communication of uncertainty in the IPCC reports by Budescu, David V., Por, Han-Hui, Broomell, Stephen B.

“…The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publishes periodical assessment reports informing policymakers and the public on issues relevant to the…”
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The Strengths and Weaknesses of Crowds to Address Global Problems by Broomell, Stephen B., Davis-Stober, Clintin P.

“…Global climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the spread of misinformation on social media are just a handful of highly consequential problems affecting…”
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Knowing what to know: Implications of the choice of prior distribution on the behavior of adaptive design optimization by Sloman, Sabina J., Cavagnaro, Daniel R., Broomell, Stephen B.

“…Adaptive design optimization (ADO) is a state-of-the-art technique for experimental design (Cavagnaro et al., 2010 ). ADO dynamically identifies stimuli that,…”
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Combining the Aggregated Forecasts: An Efficient Method for Improving Accuracy by Stacking Multiple Weighting Models by Huang, Shu, Golman, Russell, Broomell, Stephen B.

“…Aggregating multiple forecasts tends to be more accurate than relying on a single one, a phenomenon known as the wisdom of crowds. There is a variety of…”
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Investigating lay evaluations of models by Kane, Patrick Bodilly, Broomell, Stephen B.

“…Many important decisions depend on unknown states of the world. Society is increasingly relying on statistical predictive models to make decisions in these…”
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A Hypothesis Test Algorithm for Determining When Weighting Individual Judgments Reliably Improves Collective Accuracy or Just Adds Noise by Huang, Shu, Broomell, Stephen B., Golman, Russell

“…The wisdom of a crowd can be extracted by simply averaging judgments, but weighting judges based on their past performance may improve accuracy. The…”
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Pair-wise Comparisons of Multiple Models by Por, Han-Hui, Budescu, David V, Broomell, Stephen B

“…Often research in judgment and decision making requires comparison of multiple competing models. Researchers invoke global measures such as the rate of correct…”
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Expert Forecasts of COVID-19 Vaccine Development Timelines by Kane, Patrick Bodilly, Moyer, Hannah, MacPherson, Amanda, Papenburg, Jesse, Ward, Brian J, Broomell, Stephen B., Kimmelman, Jonathan

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Perceiving a Pandemic: Global-Local Incompatibility and COVID-19 Superspreading Events by Broomell, Stephen B., Kane, Patrick Bodilly

“…Superspreading events are the primary mode of infection driving the COVID-19 pandemic, but their effect on risk judgments is currently unknown. More than half…”
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Looking Beyond Cognition for Risky Decision Making: COVID-19, the Environment, and Behavior by Broomell, Stephen B., Chapman, Gretchen B.

“…Comments on an article by Valerie F. Reyna et al. (see record 2022-15515-001). Successful management of a pandemic depends on human behavior. Vaccine…”
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