Projection of Climate Change and the Intensity of Exogenous Processes on the Territory of the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous District

Projection of Climate Change and the Intensity of Exogenous Processes on the Territory of the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous District

The climate changes occurring in the Arctic are expressed in an increase in extreme values, as well as in a wide range of permafrost degradation processes, the state of which, being sensitive to climate change, causes the activation of rapidly proceeding exogenous processes. To predict the climate i...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Doklady earth sciences Vol. 510; no. 2; pp. 487 - 493
Main Authors: Kislov, A. V., Alyautdinov, A. R., Baranskaya, A. V., Belova, N. G., Bogatova, D. M., Vikulina, M. A., Zheleznova, I. V., Surkova, G. V., Kraev, G. N.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Moscow Pleiades Publishing 01-06-2023
Springer
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects:
Abrasion
Analysis
Avalanches
Climate change
Climate prediction
Climatic changes
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Extreme values
Geography
Landslides
Monthly precipitation
Natural environment
Permafrost
Precipitation
Quantiles
Slush
Soil degradation
Solifluction
Thermokarst
Yamal
projection of endogenous processes in the Arctic
CMIP6
climate projection
climate risk projection
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Summary:The climate changes occurring in the Arctic are expressed in an increase in extreme values, as well as in a wide range of permafrost degradation processes, the state of which, being sensitive to climate change, causes the activation of rapidly proceeding exogenous processes. To predict the climate in the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug for the mid-twenty-first century, data from 42 models of the CMIP6 were used. The temperature in January is expected to increase by about 3.5°C (on the coast of the Kara Sea even by 4.5°C), and in July, by ~2.5°C everywhere. The 5 and 95% quantiles will increase by 3 and 4.5°C in January and by 2 and 3°C in July, respectively. The amount of monthly precipitation will increase by an average of 10% in January and will not change in July. The 95% quantile values will increase by 30 and 10% in January and July, respectively. The number of frost days will be reduced. The warming in combination with an increase in precipitation will lead to an increase in the activity of avalanches and slush flows on the eastern slopes of the Urals and tell on the characteristics of landslides, abrasion, suffusion, erosion, thermokarst, and solifluction. Climate-dependent branches of the economy should be ready for projected changes in the natural environment.
ISSN:1028-334X
1531-8354
DOI:10.1134/S1028334X23600408