Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios

Aim Modelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past conditions, while future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we predicted changes in taxon‐specific distribution under future scenarios of climate, land use and human populat...

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Published in:	Diversity & distributions Vol. 27; no. 9; pp. 1663 - 1679
Main Authors:	Carvalho, Joana S., Graham, Bruce, Bocksberger, Gaёlle, Maisels, Fiona, Williamson, Elizabeth A., Wich, Serge, Sop, Tenekwetche, Amarasekaran, Bala, Barca, Benjamin, Barrie, Abdulai, Bergl, Richard A., Boesch, Christophe, Boesch, Hedwige, Brncic, Terry M., Buys, Bartelijntje, Chancellor, Rebecca, Danquah, Emmanuel, Doumbé, Osiris A., Le-Duc, Stephane Y., Galat-Luong, Anh, Ganas, Jessica, Gatti, Sylvain, Ghiurghi, Andrea, Goedmakers, Annemarie, Granier, Nicolas, Hakizimana, Dismas, Haurez, Barbara, Head, Josephine, Herbinger, Ilka, Hillers, Annika, Jones, Sorrel, Junker, Jessica, Maputla, Nakedi, Manasseh, Eno-Nku, McCarthy, Maureen S., Molokwu-Odozi, Mary, Morgan, Bethan J., Nakashima, Yoshihiro, N’Goran, Paul K., Nixon, Stuart, Nkembi, Louis, Normand, Emmanuelle, Nzooh, Laurent D.Z., Olson, Sarah H., Payne, Leon, Petre, Charles-Albert, Piel, Alex K., Pintea, Lilian, Plumptre, Andrew J., Rundus, Aaron, Serckx, Adeline, Stewart, Fiona A., Sunderland-Groves, Jacqueline, Tagg, Nikki, Todd, Angelique, Vosper, Ashley, Wenceslau, José F.C., Wessling, Erin G., Willie, Jacob, Kühl, Hjalmar S.
Format:	Journal Article Web Resource
Language:	English
Published:	Oxford Wiley 01-09-2021 John Wiley & Sons, Inc Blackwell
Subjects:	Analysis Animal populations Apes bonobo chimpanzee Climate change Climate change mitigation Decision making Dispersal Dispersion Endangered & extinct species Forecasting Global temperature changes gorilla Gorillas great ape human population scenarios Human populations IUCN SSC A.P.E.S. database Land use land use change Land use management Land use planning Life sciences Mathematical models Monkeys & apes Performance prediction Planning Populations Protected areas Protection and preservation RESEARCH ARTICLE Sciences du vivant species distribution modelling
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Summary:	Aim Modelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past conditions, while future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we predicted changes in taxon‐specific distribution under future scenarios of climate, land use and human populations for (1) areas outside protected areas (PAs) only (assuming complete management effectiveness of PAs), (2) the entire study region and (3) interspecies range overlap. Location Tropical Africa. Methods We compiled occurrence data (n = 5,203) on African apes from the IUCN A.P.E.S. database and extracted relevant climate‐, habitat‐ and human‐related predictors representing current and future (2050) conditions to predict taxon‐specific range change under a best‐ and a worst‐case scenario, using ensemble forecasting. Results The predictive performance of the models varied across taxa. Synergistic interactions between predictors are shaping African ape distribution, particularly human‐related variables. On average across taxa, a range decline of 50% is expected outside PAs under the best scenario if no dispersal occurs (61% in worst scenario). Otherwise, an 85% range reduction is predicted to occur across study regions (94% worst). However, range gains are predicted outside PAs if dispersal occurs (52% best, 21% worst), with a slight increase in gains expected across study regions (66% best, 24% worst). Moreover, more than half of range losses and gains are predicted to occur outside PAs where interspecific ranges overlap. Main Conclusions Massive range decline is expected by 2050, but range gain is uncertain as African apes will not be able to occupy these new areas immediately due to their limited dispersal capacity, migration lag and ecological constraints. Given that most future range changes are predicted outside PAs, Africa's current PA network is likely to be insufficient for preserving suitable habitats and maintaining connected ape populations. Thus, conservation planners urgently need to integrate land use planning and climate change mitigation measures at all decision‐making levels both in range countries and abroad.
Bibliography:	Juliano Sarmento Cabral Editor scopus-id:2-s2.0-85107196502
ISSN:	1366-9516 1472-4642 1472-4642
DOI:	10.1111/ddi.13358