Prediction of Helicoverpa armigera Hubner on pigeonpea during future climate change periods using MarkSim multimodel data

Prediction of Helicoverpa armigera Hubner on pigeonpea during future climate change periods using MarkSim multimodel data

•Growing degree days approach used to predict H. armigera in future climate periods.•3 emission scenarios, 7 models, 8 pigeonpea locations in India considered for study.•1–2 additional generations with reduced generation time predicted in future.•Findings suggest possibility of increased incidence o...

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Published in:Agricultural and forest meteorology Vol. 228-229; pp. 130 - 138
Main Authors: Mathukumalli, Srinivasa Rao, Dammu, Manimanjari, Sengottaiyan, Vennila, Ongolu, Shaila, Biradar, Abdul Khadar, Kondru, Venkateswar Rao, Karlapudi, Srinivas, Bellapukonda, Murali Krishna Raju, Chitiprolu, Rama Rao Anantha, Cherukumalli, Srinivasa Rao
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier B.V 15-11-2016
Subjects:
air temperature
climate
climate change
Climate change period
Degree days
General Circulation Models
Generation time
H. armigera
heat sums
Helicoverpa armigera
MarkSim
Number of generations
pigeon peas
Pigeonpea
prediction
India
Climate change period
Degree days
MarkSim
Number of generations
H. armigera
Generation time
Pigeonpea
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Summary:•Growing degree days approach used to predict H. armigera in future climate periods.•3 emission scenarios, 7 models, 8 pigeonpea locations in India considered for study.•1–2 additional generations with reduced generation time predicted in future.•Findings suggest possibility of increased incidence of H. armigera in future. MarkSim simulation data of future daily maximum (T. max) and minimum (T. min) air temperatures from seven General Circulation Models (GCM) viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with Ensemble AVERAGE-AVG for three emission scenarios (A2, A1B & B1) were generated for eight pigeonpea growing locations of India to estimate the number of generations of Helicoverpa armigera Hub. using growing degree days (GDD) approach during future climate periods viz., 2020, 2050 and 2080 and were compared with 1975 as baseline period. It is predicted that higher number of generations of H. armigera would occur during the three future climate periods over baseline. One to two additional generations of H. armigera with reduction of generation time (15%) were predicted to occur with CSIRO-Mk3.5 and ECHams5 models due to higher temperatures during all three future climate periods. Geographical locations explained higher per cent (65–73%) of the total variation for number of generations and generation time followed by time period (21–32%). Higher number of generations with reduced generation time of H. armigera during future climate periods suggests that the incidence on pigeonpea could be higher due to the increases in temperature projected.
Bibliography:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.07.009
ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
ISSN:0168-1923
1873-2240
DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.07.009