Search Results - "Bauch, T"
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Evolutionary game theory and social learning can determine how vaccine scares unfold
Published in PLoS computational biology (01-04-2012)“…Immunization programs have often been impeded by vaccine scares, as evidenced by the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) autism vaccine scare in Britain. A "free…”
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Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve
Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS (29-09-2020)“…In the late stages of an epidemic, infections are often sporadic and geographically distributed. Spatially structured stochastic models can capture these…”
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Social Factors in Epidemiology
Published in Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) (04-10-2013)“…The coupling of social and biological contagion in human populations can have positive or negative outcomes. [Also see Perspective by Kahan ] Despite the…”
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Algorithmic discovery of dynamic models from infectious disease data
Published in Scientific reports (27-04-2020)“…Theoretical models are typically developed through a deductive process where a researcher formulates a system of dynamic equations from hypothesized…”
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Imitation dynamics predict vaccinating behaviour
Published in Proceedings of the Royal Society. B, Biological sciences (22-08-2005)“…There exists an interplay between vaccine coverage, disease prevalence and the vaccinating behaviour of individuals. Moreover, because of herd immunity, there…”
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Assessing the pandemic potential of MERS-CoV
Published in The Lancet (British edition) (24-08-2013)“…[...]a trend towards increasing cluster sizes would be interpreted by their method as natural variability unrelated to virus adaptation…”
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Social contact networks and disease eradicability under voluntary vaccination
Published in PLoS computational biology (01-02-2009)“…Certain theories suggest that it should be difficult or impossible to eradicate a vaccine-preventable disease under voluntary vaccination: Herd immunity…”
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Early warning signals for bifurcations embedded in high dimensions
Published in Scientific reports (06-08-2024)“…Recent work has highlighted the utility of methods for early warning signal detection in dynamic systems approaching critical tipping thresholds. Often these…”
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Coupled disease–behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review
Published in Physics of life reviews (01-12-2015)“…It is increasingly recognized that a key component of successful infection control efforts is understanding the complex, two-way interaction between disease…”
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Alternative stable states and the sustainability of forests, grasslands, and agriculture
Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS (20-12-2016)“…Endangered forest–grassland mosaics interspersed with expanding agriculture and silviculture occur across many parts of the world, including the southern…”
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Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools
Published in Scientific reports (18-03-2021)“…There is a pressing need for evidence-based scrutiny of plans to re-open childcare centres during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we developed an agent-based model…”
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Comparing influenza vaccine efficacy against mismatched and matched strains: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Published in BMC medicine (25-06-2013)“…Influenza vaccines are most effective when the antigens in the vaccine match those of circulating strains. However, antigens contained in the vaccines do not…”
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Disease dynamics and costly punishment can foster socially imposed monogamy
Published in Nature communications (12-04-2016)“…Socially imposed monogamy in humans is an evolutionary puzzle because it requires costly punishment by those who impose the norm. Moreover, most societies…”
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Charting pathways to climate change mitigation in a coupled socio-climate model
Published in PLoS computational biology (01-06-2019)“…Geophysical models of climate change are becoming increasingly sophisticated, yet less effort is devoted to modelling the human systems causing climate change…”
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Global land use implications of dietary trends
Published in PloS one (08-08-2018)“…Global food security and agricultural land management represent two urgent and intimately related challenges that humans must face. We quantify the changes in…”
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Modelling science trustworthiness under publish or perish pressure
Published in Royal Society open science (01-01-2018)“…Scientific publication is immensely important to the scientific endeavour. There is, however, concern that rewarding scientists chiefly on publication creates…”
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Predicting discrete-time bifurcations with deep learning
Published in Nature communications (10-10-2023)“…Many natural and man-made systems are prone to critical transitions—abrupt and potentially devastating changes in dynamics. Deep learning classifiers can…”
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Vaccination and the Theory of Games
Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS (07-09-2004)“…Voluntary vaccination policies for childhood diseases present parents with a subtle challenge: if a sufficient proportion of the population is already immune,…”
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The impact of human-environment interactions on the stability of forest-grassland mosaic ecosystems
Published in Scientific reports (19-09-2013)“…Forest-grassland mosaic ecosystems can exhibit alternative stables states, whereby under the same environmental conditions, the ecosystem could equally well…”
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Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior
Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS (26-12-2017)“…Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex,…”
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