Simulating land use changes, sediment yields, and pesticide use in the Upper Paraguay River Basin: Implications for conservation of the Pantanal wetland

As a consequence of accelerated and excessive use of pesticides in tropical regions, wilderness areas are under threat; this includes the Pantanal wetlands in the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPRB). Using a Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC) modelling approach, we estimated the expected pesticide loa...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Agriculture, ecosystems & environment Vol. 314; p. 107405
Main Authors:	Roque, Fabio de Oliveira, Guerra, Angélica, Johnson, Matthew, Padovani, Carlos, Corbi, Juliano, Covich, Alan P., Eaton, Donald, Tomas, Walfrido Moraes, Valente-Neto, Francisco, Borges, Ana Claudia Piovezan, Pinho, Alexandra, Barufatii, Alexeia, Crispim, Bruno do Amaral, Guariento, Rafael Dettogni, Andrade, Maria Helena da Silva, Rezende-Filho, Ary Tavares, Portela, Rodolfo, Divina, Marcia, da Silva, Julio César Sampaio, Bernadino, Cássio, Gomes de Sá, Érica Fernanda Gonçalves, Cordeiro-Estrela, Pedro, Desbiez, Arnaud, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Yon, Lisa
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Elsevier B.V 01-07-2021
Subjects:	Agriculture Agrochemical Biodiversity Land Cover Land Use Change Paraguay River Sedimentation Agriculture Agrochemical Biodiversity Sedimentation Paraguay River Land Cover Land Use Change
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Summary:	As a consequence of accelerated and excessive use of pesticides in tropical regions, wilderness areas are under threat; this includes the Pantanal wetlands in the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPRB). Using a Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC) modelling approach, we estimated the expected pesticide load in the Pantanal and the surrounding highlands region for 2050 under three potential scenarios: i) business as usual (BAU), ii) acceleration of anthropogenic changes (ACC), and iii) use of buffer zones around protected areas (BPA). The quantity of pesticides used in the UPRB is predicted to vary depending on the scenario, from an overall increase by as much as 7.4% in the UPRB in the BAU scenario (increasing by 38.5% in the floodplain and 6.6% in the highlands), to an increase of 11.2% in the UPRB (over current use) under the AAC scenario (increasing by 53.8% in the floodplain and 7.5% in the highlands). Much higher usage of pesticides is predicted in sub-basins with greater agricultural areas within major hydrographic basins. Changing the current trajectory of land management in the UPRB is a complex challenge. It will require a substantial shift from current practices, and will involve the implementation of a number of strategies, ranging from the development of new technologies to achieve changes in land use policies, to increasing dialogue between farmers, ranchers, the scientific community, and local or traditional communities through participatory learning processes and outreach. •Currently, 55 million liters of pesticides are used in the Pantanal and its surrounds.•If current trends continue, the use of pesticides may increase by up to 7.7% by 2050.•The acceleration of agriculture will increase the use of pesticides beyond the levels currently used.•Much higher usage of pesticides is predicted in sub-basins with greater agricultural areas within major hydrographic basins.•Changing the current trajectory should involve participatory learning processes and outreach activities with the stakeholders.
ISSN:	0167-8809 1873-2305
DOI:	10.1016/j.agee.2021.107405