Estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission probability in confined traffic space and evaluation of the mitigation strategies

Estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission probability in confined traffic space and evaluation of the mitigation strategies

Public transport is a fundamental service for the resumption of work and production, but the enclosed environment and dense population create very favorable conditions for the spread of epidemic infections. Thus, effective public health interventions are urgently introduced. The objective of this pa...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental science and pollution research international Vol. 28; no. 31; pp. 42204 - 42216
Main Authors: Chen, Linlin, Ban, Guangze, Long, Enshen, Kalonji, Gretchen, Cheng, Zhu, Zhang, Li, Guo, Shurui
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01-08-2021
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects:
Aquatic Pollution
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
COVID-19
Cruise ships
Diamonds
Disease control
Earth and Environmental Science
Ecotoxicology
Environment
Environmental Chemistry
Environmental Health
Environmental science
Epidemics
Evaluation
Health promotion
Humans
Masks
Monte Carlo simulation
Pandemics
Passengers
Probability
Public health
Public transportation
Research Article
SARS-CoV-2
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Viral diseases
Viruses
Waste Water Technology
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
Transmission routes
SARS-CoV-2
Wells-Riley model
Facial masks
Public transportation
Transmission probability
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Summary:Public transport is a fundamental service for the resumption of work and production, but the enclosed environment and dense population create very favorable conditions for the spread of epidemic infections. Thus, effective public health interventions are urgently introduced. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively estimate the SARS-CoV-2 transmission probability and evaluate the influence of environmental parameters and individual intervention on the epidemic prevention. For this purpose, (1) we estimate the virus emission rate with Diamond Princess Cruise Ship infection data by Monte Carlo simulation and the improved Wells-Riley model, and (2) employ the reproductive number R to quantify diverse mitigation strategies. Different determinants are examined such as the duration of exposure, the number of passengers combined with individual interventions such as mask type and mask-wearing rate. The results show that the SARS-CoV-2 quantum generation rate is 185.63. The R shows a stronger positive correlation with the exposure time comparing to the number of passengers. In this light, reducing the frequency of long-distance journeys on crowded public transportation may be required to reduce the spread of the virus during the pandemic. N95 mask and surgical mask can reduce the transmission risk by 97 and 84%, respectively, and even homemade mask can reduce the risk by 67%, which indicates that it is necessary to advocate wearing masks on public transportation.
Bibliography:Responsible Editor: Lotfi Aleya
ISSN:0944-1344
1614-7499
DOI:10.1007/s11356-021-13617-y