Cardiovascular risk prediction model for Omanis with type 2 diabetes

Cardiovascular risk prediction model for Omanis with type 2 diabetes

•This paper presents the first cardiovascular risk prediction tool in the Arab world.•It includes seven traditional CVD predictors to calculate the 5-year CVD risk for Omani diabetic patients.•Predictors included age, diabetes duration, HbA1c, albuminuria, cholesterol, BMI and hypertension. To date,...

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Published in:Diabetes & metabolic syndrome clinical research & reviews Vol. 12; no. 2; pp. 105 - 110
Main Authors: Alrawahi, Abdul Hakeem, Lee, Patricia, Al-Anqoudi, Zaher A.M., Alrabaani, Muna, Al-Busaidi, Ahmed, Almahrouqi, Faisal, Albusaidi, Ahmed M.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Netherlands Elsevier Ltd 01-04-2018
Subjects:
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Arab
Arabs
Cardiovascular disease
Cardiovascular Diseases - diagnosis
Cardiovascular Diseases - epidemiology
Cohort Studies
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - diagnosis
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - epidemiology
Female
Follow-Up Studies
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Models, Theoretical
Oman
Oman - epidemiology
Predictive Value of Tests
Retrospective Studies
Risk Factors
Risk prediction
Type 2 diabetes
Young Adult
Type 2 diabetes
Model
Cardiovascular disease
Risk prediction
Arab
Oman
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Summary:•This paper presents the first cardiovascular risk prediction tool in the Arab world.•It includes seven traditional CVD predictors to calculate the 5-year CVD risk for Omani diabetic patients.•Predictors included age, diabetes duration, HbA1c, albuminuria, cholesterol, BMI and hypertension. To date, no cardiovascular risk assessment tool has been developed specifically for any Arabian population including Omanis. This study aims to develop a suitable cardiovascular risk prediction model in the form of a statistical equation, for Omanis with type 2 diabetes. A sample of 2039 patients with type 2 diabetes selected from primary care settings in the Aldakhiliyah Province of Oman were involved in a retrospective cohort study. All patients were free of cardiovascular disease at baseline (in 2009–2010) and were followed up until: 1) their first cardiovascular event occurred; 2) the patient died, or 3) the end of the data collection in December 2015. Among the total sample, 192 cardiovascular disease events were recorded within a mean follow-up period of 5.3-year. The 5-year probability of a cardiovascular event was given as 1−0.9991Exp∑XiBi, where Exp ∑XiBi (hazard ratio)=Exp (0.038 age+0.052 DM duration+0.102 HbA1c+0.201 total cholesterol+0.912 albuminuria [1 if present]+0.166 hypertension [1 if present]+0.005 BMI). The first cardiovascular risk prediction tool in the Arab world was developed in this study. It may be used to estimate the 5-year cardiovascular risk among Omanis with type 2 diabetes in order to plan patient management and preventive measures. However, further validation studies are required to determine the accuracy of the model.
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ISSN:1871-4021
1878-0334
DOI:10.1016/j.dsx.2017.09.012