In Search of the Causes of the Globalization Backlash: Methodological Considerations on Post-treatment Bias
We study the implications of post-treatment bias in the context of the globalization backlash. We discuss whether horse-race regressions can inform about the relative role of economic versus cultural drivers. We make three methodological points: (1) if and insofar as cultural variables are post-trea...
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| Published in: | Comparative political studies |
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| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
14-10-2024
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| Online Access: | Get full text |
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| Summary: | We study the implications of post-treatment bias in the context of the globalization backlash. We discuss whether horse-race regressions can inform about the relative role of economic versus cultural drivers. We make three methodological points: (1) if and insofar as cultural variables are post-treatment with respect to economic factors, the estimates of the effect of economic shocks on voting are biased in regressions that include cultural controls (and vice versa); (2) for the same reason, such horse-race regressions do not allow to accurately estimate the relative role of economic versus cultural factors; (3) one cannot infer mediation effects from changes in regression coefficients for a given factor of interest before and after including post-treatment controls. We accompany the methodological discussion with empirical evidence on the relevance of post-treatment bias in studies of the globalization backlash, both by replicating and expanding on earlier studies, and by presenting novel cross-country results on the culture-economy nexus. |
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| ISSN: | 0010-4140 1552-3829 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/00104140241271124 |