Authoritarian succession, rules, and conflicts: Tokayev's gambit and Kazakhstan's bloody January of 2022 (Qandy Qantar)
The authoritarian succession literature indicates that non-democratic regimes install rules and institutions that supposedly ensure a smooth transition from ruler to a chosen successor. However, this scholarship cannot explain why some authoritarian successions happen as planned while others end in...
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| Published in: | Post-Soviet affairs Vol. 40; no. 6; pp. 429 - 451 |
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| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Columbia
Routledge
01-11-2024
V.H. Winston & Sons Incorporated |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Get full text |
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| Summary: | The authoritarian succession literature indicates that non-democratic regimes install rules and institutions that supposedly ensure a smooth transition from ruler to a chosen successor. However, this scholarship cannot explain why some authoritarian successions happen as planned while others end in surprising violence. This article unpacks the puzzle of the transition of power from Nursultan Nazarbayev (1991-2019) to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (2019-present) in autocratic Kazakhstan. Based on in-depth interviews with more than 15 informants and the analysis of media and secondary sources, we explore why and how the planned succession in Kazakhstan resulted in the bloodshed known as the 2022 Bloody January (Qandy Qantar). We demonstrate that two factors derailed the succession plan: the configuration of authoritarian rules and the presence of political ambitions of Tokayev. Our main argument is that the Nazarbayev succession plan led to elite disunity, escalating the political conflict into the violent 2022 Bloody January. |
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| ISSN: | 1060-586X 1938-2855 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/1060586X.2024.2377929 |